I'm Calling My Shot...

1932 World Series: Babe Ruth Calls His Shot

Today is Election Day!  Yay!  I'm glad that I already voted.  The big race is not the race for the Southern Orange County Community College District--it's the Presidential Race obviously.

The polls are all over the map.  No one seems to be able to say with certainty what is going to happen.  But I'm going to go ahead and call my shot--just like The Babe!

I think that Mitt Romney is going to be elected as our 45th President.  I know that the Electoral College math looks tough for him and I agree that it is a big hurdle.  But here is why I think Willard Mitt Romney will win.  (And I say this perhaps more with my gut than anything else, but wasn't it President Obama that proved to us that HOPE was a great campaign strategy?

Hoping for Change

• The polls are all over the map, but it seems like all of the turnout models assume that Democrats will turn out in the same or greater numbers than they did in 2008.  I think that's a bit optimistic.  
• The ABC/Washington Post poll had Obama up by 3 today, but it also oversampled Democrats by +6 (35% Dems to 29% Republicans). 
• CNN went one better.  Their final poll had the race 49% to 49%. But, their sample was overweighted to Democrats by +11!  Wow!  In 2008, the Democrat turnout percentage was only +6, I believe.  I don't think anyone thinks that they will turnout as well this election (even the Democrats).
• It seems like Romney has had the more positive message lately.  President Obama told us over the weekend that "voting is the best revenge."  Romney asked us to "vote for love of country."  Which message do you think is more inspirational.  (And what are we trying to get revenge against Romney for in the first place?)
• Most polls have Obama at less than 50%.  I doubt that he is going to win over the undecideds.  If you haven't been able to figure out whether you support President Obama over the past four years, I doubt you're going to walk into that voting booth today and pull the lever to re-elect the President.
• It seems like the Democrat turnout for early voting is less than it was in 2008.  Republican turnout on Election Day will be much better.  On balance, I think that this factor favors Romney.
• Finally, it seems like Romney has momentum and enthusiasm on his side.  This is totally anecdotal, I know, but I see headlines like this:

Plenty of available seats for President Obama's final rally in Ohio...maybe they were out voting?
Did I mention that this rally had The Boss (Bruce Springsteen) and Jaz-Z performing?

I wish I had more than that to go on, but I don't.  Political pundits and prognosticators are all over the map too.

I want to be clear that I'm not blindly "hoping" for Romney because he's Mormon.  To the contrary, I'd be more enthusiastic if he were not Mormon.  I think out political climate is so toxic that I worry that the scandal-mongers be on high alert to take Romney down from the moment the election is decided.  The long knives will be out for Romney no matter what he does and I worry that there could be blow-back on the Church.

As Exhibit A, I give you the Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, who recently said that it was "laughable" that Senate Democrats would work with Romney if he won the presidency.  Sure, Reid is a partisan hack, but he's also Mormon.  Just like Romney.  But even Harry Reid can't seem to overlook the party affiliation to try to achieve any bi-partisan results.  I guess we'll see how it goes...

So there you have it.  I've called my shot.  I could totally be wrong about my prediction.  I'm just hoping that I'm not...

Who do you think is going to win?